IGNJ “Looking at past data, Nintendo’s next-generation console is likely to be announced in 2023.”

Nintendo’s Next-Generation Machine Announcement Date Predicted by Data

According to the article

・Nintendo Switch is regularly beginning to level out the bounds of its specs.

・By unraveling previous information, now we have come to know that there’s a sure sample within the timing of the announcement of next-generation consoles by Nintendo.

・Deciphering the previous patterns of Nintendo’s stationary consoles,Nintendo launches next-generation consoles “when the momentum of the platform is lost”, in different phrases, “when the software sells poorly compared to the cumulative number of hardware sales”.

・If you have a look at the “new installation index” calculated by “the number of software sold in that year / the total number of hardware sold up to that year”, it’s roughlyNext-generation machines are introduced on the timing when the brand new set up coefficient drops under 2.0 and drops to the low 1.0 varyI perceive.

・The decline in Nintendo Switch’s new installment coefficient is unprecedentedly gradual, however Nintendo itself predicts a slowdown within the tempo of gross sales from April 2022 onwards.

・According to Nintendo’s earnings forecast launched on November 9, 2022, it expects to promote 19 million items of {hardware} and 210 million items of software program within the yr from April 2022 to 2023. I’m right here. If we add up the cumulative {hardware} gross sales to this point (roughly 108 million items) and calculate the brand new set up coefficient for this era, will probably be roughly 1.66.

・As of March 2023, the brand new set up coefficient isIt is predicted to succeed in the extent of “it would not be unusual for the next-generation console to be introduced at any time”, and it may be mentioned that the timing of the announcement of Nintendo’s next-generation console is approaching.

・On the opposite hand, Nintendo’s introduced software program gross sales figures don’t embrace indie video games and different DL unique software program, so there’s a risk that the “estimated lifespan” will likely be just a little longer.

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